Bush, Kerry . . . Odds on
While Peter Hartcher thinks the descendents of Scots-Irish immigrants will keep Bush in Office, over at the Murdoch press, Robert Dallek agrees with the Indian Astrology Study & Research Institute that the White House is in the stars for Kerry, although for more down-to-earth reasons. Still, if you’re looking for a more usually reliable source, the bookies called it for Howard, and they’re calling it for Bush, too, although the odds are shrinking daily. Yesterday they were paying AU$2.40 on Kerry, and today, it’s AU$2.10. I may have to put some money down.

Talk of the Nation
The New Yorker was an indispensable periodical in our household back on the Upper East Side, and for a while after we moved, our subscription was forwarded, leaving us only about a week or two behind. This has since ceased, and we’ve been reluctant to renew, given the exorbitant cost of overseas delivery. It isn’t the same on-line, so I’ve actually avoided it for the most part, along with the Atlantic Monthly, having also allowed that subscription to lapse. Although M&P have been helping out by shipping their old copies of the New Yorker down to us, we’re still only up to the DNC, so thanks to the Barista, who kindly pointed out the worth of the on-line content, I’ve gone ahead of the international post to peruse the latest commentary in that venerable magazine, wherein they offer their sage assessment and advice. Sure, they’re liberals, New York liberals at that, but they’ve never shied away from calling anyone’s bluff or calling them on their errors, irrespective of political party, and this is, after all, the publication that made fact-checking a nearly impossible standard to meet for anyone else. When they say it, it’s worth listening, and they say it all very well, so in an effort towards public service, I provide the link and recommend reading the editors’ opinion, especially if you’re still deluded enough to be thinking of voting Bush back into the Oval Office.

Leave the Dog, Take the Brandy
The St. Bernards of St. Bernard looking for a new home. The monastery has a Golden Retriever now to do the work of sniffing through avalanches, and the search-and-rescue services use German Shepherds and Labs, because they’re easier to fit into the helicopter. The monks, meanwhile, don’t appear terribly fond of having the big slobs around, presumably more because of how much a St. Bernard eats and how much other care is required than because they don’t like dogs per se. No mention of the brandy kegs, but I seem to recall that was apocryphal anyway.

EU Oracle Pronouncement
That’s a better headline than the news it’s meant to convey: The EU has given Oracle’s bid to take over PeopleSoft the o.k. to proceed. That was pretty much a foregone conclusion once the U.S. antitrust suit failed, but now in light of the revelations from PeopleSoft on Craig Conway’s remarks to industry analysts, the hostile takeover seems more viable than it did when Larry Ellison first made his bid. Although Oracle has already announced a substantially reduced per share offer, this doesn’t preclude success, particularly if PeopleSoft’s share price is adversely affected by the latest changes in the company’s fortunes, as it surely will be. Meanwhile although SAP denies talks with the 200kg gorilla, there’s plenty more drama possible over the next year or two.

I Feel Safer Every Day
For a year after September 11 I had to listen to Tom Ridge announce the color-coded threat level in response to John Ashcroft’s threat assessments, pretty much a monthly event, if not more frequent. The Department of Homeland Security is charged with the coordination of intelligence-gathering and law enforcement agencies at the federal level, and besides being adepts with crayons, they’re also apparently brilliant at locating terrorist support groups, like toy stores. When Kerry’s President, can we get rid of Ridge?

Don't Re-Elect George: 100 Reasons Why
Via the indispensable Memepool, the Nation's top 100 non-arguable facts in the case against the Bush Administration, in a handy .pdf format. Just in case you haven't made up your mind yet.

Babe Ruth Can Rest at Last
Red Sox, wow. Words fail me. If the Cubs can win next year, I will be convinced of the immanence of the Apocalypse.

Who Does Jeb Know in the Post Office?
Or: Out of the warehouse and into the Okefenokee.
5% of Florida's absentee ballots are lost in the mail - 60,000 postal ballots. Either a seriously disgruntled postal worker has got an overstuffed closet at home, or something fishy's happened.

Not Busy November 2?
Then help out.

Fun with Politics
Last night's gathering at Bar Broadway for the Campaign 2004 Rally was a great success. Democrats Abroad Australia raised a few thousand dollars towards the last week's campaigning, and no wonder, with over 100 people in attendance, including some Australian guests. The rally included video clips from the Democratic convention in Boston, the Daily Show, Eminem's latest, and an address from Federal MP Tanya Plibersek. A terrific evening, wonderfully organized by the leadership of the group.

And while we've been doing everything we can to get out the vote, Jeb's been doing everything he can to get the voters out and keep Florida red. It's George's own banana republic down there.

(Update: probably I should have put up these photos before, but better late than never. None of me, thank God.)
Too dark and too far for my little HP camera.
Top-flight and new member of the shadow cabinet, Tanya Plibersek addresses Democrats Abroad-Australia.

In Harm's Way
American casualties are high, although not necessarily in a per capita accounting of troops on the ground vs. deaths. And so far, deaths among non-American coalition forces have been limited, which shouldn't in any way be taken to disparage their contribution to Bush's undertaking in Iraq. But 400 tons of ordinance in the hands of insurgents puts everyone at greater risk than can be legitimately accounted for, and if the stuff hasn't been in play before, it surely is now. Add in wounded, another 8000+, and the figures become more dismaying. The conduct of the war has been abyssmal. Too much focus on non-existent weapons and not enough on the stuff that was there. Bush and Rumsfeld don't deserve their jobs.

My Dinner with Webloggers
I think I’ll skip any ’blogger meet-ups for the next week. There are too many who fit David Brook’s pundit profile.

October Surprise?
Chief Justice William Rehnquist is undergoing treatment for thyroid cancer, and at 80 his tenure is perhaps equally as tenuous from this as it would be from other health issues, let alone from just wanting to hang up those snazzy robes at last, leading to the inevitable conclusion: whoever gets the White House will now definitely have at least one Supreme Court vacancy to appoint to, and the Chief Justice at that (although the President can elevate a sitting Justice). Kerry and Bush have already indicated their differences prospectively over this issue, but will they make more of a point of it in the remaining days of the campaign with the release of this bit of news? After Rehnquist, whither the Court?

1970’s Redux
Zbegniew Brzezinski’s in the NYTimes today, analyzing the offerings from Bush and Kerry on Iraq and making a lot of sense, a function he served under Jimmy Carter back in the days when the Arab-Israeli conflict started looking like there might be a lasting and hopeful turning point, i.e., previous to the assassination of Sadat. It’s all gotten a lot more complex since then, and while “stay the course” has been dissatisfying coming from George II, the prospect that that’s all that Kerry’s got to offer so far, irrespective of any improvements in America’s relations with its allies, has been similarly dismaying. As much as I believe that keeping Bush in office just so he can get us out of the mess he’s gotten us into is a counterproductive option, I also believe that Kerry’s going to have to come up with something very good indeed to be effective on this situation, and just being “someone else” isn’t enough. Brzezinski’s program - relieving the Palestinian-Israeli tension plus a commitment from Europe on Iraq plus a real effort on getting Iran to negotiate and back off going nuclear – sounds better than anything else I’ve heard so far. Maybe it’s just that it shows a more sweeping vision of engaging in the region than has been on offer previously, but isn’t that the kind of “changed world” problem-solving approach that’s called for these days? It’s fine for Bush to say everything’s different since 9/11, but he’s not doing anything newer than was done when the Ottomans threatened to overrun Europe. Kerry says he wants to be smarter in combating terrorism; here’s his chance.

Expecting Results
Next week, we’ll be gathering in the upstairs room (shades of the Last Supper) at Bar Broadway to watch the returns. Crooked Timber’s pointed out a handy guide to the coverage to help keep the mood swings level. The returns will start coming in around lunch time, so everyone should be sure to have something to eat so blood-sugar levels don’t interfere with reason.

Less and Less to Drink
It’s been raining all week, and the Parramatta River has been up well over its banks overnight, and the smell of mud permeates the air. Up north, the Bellinger River has been up 8 metres, cutting father-in-law off from the rest of the state. For all the rain Sydney’s only seen enough fall in the catchments for a week’s more water than it had before. If the rainy season persists, I suppose we might yet see the next stage of water restrictions later than sooner, but I expect we’ll see them anyway just the same. I’m about ready for a couple of days’ break, even if I do recognize how much we need the wet. And with Australia coming in high on the list of countries with a large ecological footprint, we’re going to have to work very hard indeed to do more with less, or there will be little to work with at all.

Who Won?
Thomas Friedman has it right, I think, to suggest that the biggest deciding factor in the Presidential election is whether voters can trust Kerry will command the protection of the United States and pursue effectively those who would harm us at home or abroad, as opposed to whether they are convinced Bush understands what he has undertaken and how badly he’s screwed it up so that he can undertake to repair the damage before it’s too late. Personally, I’m already sold on Kerry, but it didn’t take much effort on the candidate’s part. Bush has consistently demonstrated his faith-based doctrinarian approach to leadership, and that’s not what I look for in a leader. Change in circumstances sometimes requires reassessment and a corresponding change in method or direction, and from the beginning of the campaign season, that ability to reassess and adapt has been an essential criterion in selecting a candidate. There are other factors, of course, and I have not been immune to questions over whether Kerry, with his years in the Senate, would be more or less capable of functioning as an executive, among other things, than, for example, Howard Dean, whose role as a state Governor obviously fitted him with the experience required, just as it had with Clinton or, presumptively Bush (although that never turned out to be the case, the Texas executive branch being somewhat more like ceremonial in its powers). And as the campaign has progressed I’ve seen Kerry learning, developing, whereas I’ve only seen Bush become more and more strident, more firmly attached to denying any error or even so much as a misstep, growing ever more simplistic. For him it all boils down to being either “with him or against him,” a choice between salvation or damnation, but on the evidence, we’re damned either way if he gets in again. Selecting a Chief Executive isn’t a matter of belief, like choosing a religion, and while trusting in a “higher power” has given George W. the chance not to drink himself to death, it isn’t enough to run a country with either, just like it wasn’t enough for him to function as a businessman. Bush is a failed executive without a history of service to anything other than his own privilege. Kerry has used every privilege to pursue a career of service to the country, without shirking or complaint. There’s not much more I’d ask for in a President.

Vote for Bush, or the Sox Will Win the World Series
Dick Cheney was on the stump again, scare-mongering: "John Kerry wants the Red Sox to win [the World Series]," he announced to a partisan crowd in St. Louis, where the Cardinals had already clinched the Central Division title. And this time, he may be right. O.k., I made up the quote stuff, but with all the fear-mongering going on, I wouldn't be surprised if he had said it. So St. Louis or the Astros will soon face the BoSox. This is not a good time not to have cable. Maybe if I get up early enough, the ABC or somebody will be playing highlights.

Pollster Cage Match
Over at Simon World you can read a description of a talk given by John Zogby in Hong Kong regarding his polling company's analysis of the U.S. election, including his opinion on Gallup's results, which he considers as being completely inaccurate just on their face. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Florida are the key states, and Zogby pegs the race as Kerry's to lose, with no net effect expected from Nader. How reassuring.

A Heartbeat Away
I have yet to see any speculation on post-second term Republican candidacy, but it occurs to me to wonder what the GOP might already be considering regarding Dick Cheney. He’ll be 67 in 2008, 71 by the time his [first] term would be up, and his heart’s pretty dodgy, which could put him out of the running, but the usual turn of events has been for the VP to run following the second term. So what about Dick? Does the undisclosed location have special rejuvenation equipment keeping him fresh for his big campaign, or will they chance a run-off, potentially leaving a weaker candidate than an incumbent VP to face whomever the Democrats field then? Perhaps they don’t care, figuring it’ll be Hillary Clinton, and nobody’d vote for her anyway because she’s still that polarizing. Or will Cheney resign to “be with his family” two years down the line so that Bush can put in a more viable successor? Cheney’s agenda has never seemed to include a run for the Presidency, and even recently he’s expressed no desire for the job, although that could just be disingenuousness. He does fit the Republican bill, outside of the fundamentalism of the incumbent’s support base, insofar as he’s got big-business credentials and an extremist tendency towards laissez-faire micro-economics. Is there anything in the Constitution about not electing a brain in a jar?

Third Way
I’ve given Third-Party politics some thought lately, although only in reference to the Australian election, but this isn’t the year to go down that path, whether here or at home, and I think there are some here who now regret their choice somewhat. The Counsellor has some interesting reflections on 1980 that confirm me in my convictions since then. John Anderson, for reasons I cannot recall any longer, was also my - first and only - foray into Third Party politics. Carter, remembered as "history's greatest monster" by the neo-cons (to geek from the Simpsons), taught America a lot, pretty much all of which was forever forgotten in the twelve years of Reagan-Bush. Clinton made us feel hopeful and generous again, but there was complacency, too, and we're suffering now from a return to those self-righteous days of the 80's led by a man who doesn't understand the philosophies then at work let alone the policies that were implemented, but desperately wants to see them back again to undo what he does believe in: his father's failure.

I don’t see 41 as a failure per se, but he wasn’t the charismatic leader Ronnie was. He was, however, at least in his approach, more Presidential than Reagan (and certainly more so than W). Clinton’s arrival was just in time, and his departure rendered all the more painful by Gore’s less-than-impressive performance in the 2000 election. The Third Party factor clinched Bush II’s ability to steal the result, much the way Anderson’s candidacy affected the outcome in 1980: just enough.

While Ralph Nader is pretty much now relegated to footnote status and unlikely to affect voting patterns significantly enough to turn any state’s result, we also have the “troubled times” factor at work. As happened here, there will be a significant part of the population who will vote from the principle that the man who got us into the war needs to be the one to get us out, too. There will also be those who are insufficiently principled to do the hard thing, to vote out Bush, because they’d have to think about more than themselves. These latter people will either not vote at all or will vote to re-elect. These are the people who need to be taken by the elbow, the collar, the ear and propelled to the booth with the admonitions necessary to make them act and the information to act upon. Anyone who is not a committed right-wing reactionary is potentially susceptible to argument in favor of putting Kerry in office. If you know one, be gentle but be persuasive: get out the vote.

Update: O.k., so it's not safe to count Nader out just yet. The college campus venues Nader mainly appears at give him what might be a very effective bully pulpit among a population his candidacy would appeal to, and who aren't necessarily getting picked up in polls. He's still a footnote.

Standings
Congratulations to KRAC Captain (and his cohorts).

Alas, Poor Latham
With all our friends gathered 'round to watch the returns on the ABC, Labor lost its bid to take over government for the next three years, and Howard got back in office, and with a noticable addition of seats, if just to salt the ALP's wounds. While I'm disappointed, I'm not really surprised, because the pundits, including the bookies, have been pegging the Coalition to win even despite the various swings in the poll results, which have gone either way from week to week over the campaign. Howard ran his campaign well, choosing to stress issues designed to trigger fear in the electorate, whether fear of terrorists, fear over Mark Latham's relative inexperience as a front-bencher, or fear of an interest rate rise. Once again, it appears that - if not lies - untruths have won the day. In the previous election, lies that illegal immigrants were going to flood the country and were so unprincipled as to throw their children overboard and therefore unworthy of Australian compassion, drove the ballots in favor of the Liberal/National Party Coalition. This time, the electorate believed that extraordinary interest rates would return upon Mark Latham becoming Prime Minister (even though this is controlled by the independent Reserve Bank), or that Latham's having been in Parliament for only a relative short time would prove him incompetent, or that the Iraq adventure was a more valid choice than developing relationships with southeast Asian neighbors.

Well, we had a lovely party just the same: food, drink, good friends and new. Photos can been seen at Flickr. (You known the drill: click on the small images to view them larger. Notes have been added, so mouse over the faces in the group shot for additional commentary.) Next month's party up at Bar Broadway (for the other big election this year, not to slight the Afghans) will hopefully have a better outcome. I'm sure the crowd will be equally congenial.

Plus 1
It's just NY, which is pretty firmly a blue state anyway, but put one vote down for Kerry there anyway.

(Update: it strikes me this might be cryptic. To clarify: my absentee ballot is in the mail.)

Veep Meet
The Cheney-Edwards debate doesn't read quite as well as Bush-Kerry. Edwards seemed to spend more time reiterating Kerry's lines from Thursday than Cheney did with Bush's, but that's not much of a surprise given George II's abysmal performance. I'll probably miss the replay at next Tuesday's Democrats Abroad meeting (an enlightening experience on last week's match, as I previously mentioned), but maybe it doesn't really matter. Cheney was only occassionally effective, but Edwards, I think, managed to deliver his campaign's core messages, so even if he didn't land any devastating blows against the Bush administration's record, he did leave the victor overall. I'm looking forward to the news reports here, if just to see if this round helps lift the coverage from its present doldrums.

Rain

Now that spring has arrived, so has more rain. Although many millimetres fell over last Thursday and Friday, the cachements only saw an increase of about 1%, and that was used up in a day. The overflow in the picture above is the Parramatta River, about 27 kilometres west of the harbour, so none of this runoff is going anywhere useful to anything or anyone other than the river itself and the ducks and eels therein.

Win, Place, Show
Thanks to Scott’s correction, I saw a replay of the first debate last night (and got my t-shirt), and I cannot believe that anyone could have pegged this as a tie, let alone given it to Bush. I was reminded of nothing so much as of one of the Grimm Brothers’ fairy tales, recontextualized as the American political promise that “anyone can grow up to be President.” Remember the one about the two little girls, one of whom is blessed for her kindness and good manners to have every word she speaks manifest in gold coins and jewels, while the other’s rudeness is punished so that she spits snakes and toads? Kerry & Bush represent a similar polarity of ability and manner. I almost feel sorry for George II, stumbling over the lumpy frogs, having to swallow back the hairy spiders, while Kerry’s every utterance is lucid and frank: a gold sovereign, coin of the realm. I felt real hope for the campaign and for the country. Honestly, Kerry hardly needed to show up for this; George wiped the floor with himself.

Annals of Yellow Journalism
Remember that Fox News report post-debate of Kerry making various "metrosexual" remarks? It was false, of course, and immediately the question was raised: what has Fox done about it? Nothing. They told the reporter he'd been bad, and sent him back to work covering the campaign. Or they told him to be more realistic when he reports lies, and sent him back to work. Either way, he's still covering Murdoch's bid to see George II re-elected.

Mining the Atlas
Via the redoubtable Metafilter, multimap allows you to obtain a street map of pretty much anywhere, including my very own neighbourhood [sic]. Of course, the service for Great Britain, where the website originates, includes an even more spectacular feature, one I truly hope will encompass more of the world as time goes on: that is, aerial photos with a map overlay. So cool it hurts.

Wired for Sound
Is it possible that George II had a prompter during the debate, feeding him his lines? Or is this a clever photoshop job? Nothing on Snopes so far.

Therapy & Thrash
Because of the long weekend, M. & I managed to fit in seeing Metallica: Some Kind of Monster, and while I’ve never been remotely a fan of the genre in which this band operates, I have to admit my admiration for the group and its individual members after seeing this film. Although it starts after their therapy sessions have already begun, the movie begins in the early days of the St. Anger recording sessions, so you’re given the opportunity to see the band at pretty much its most dysfunctional. Despite their problems, they’re all really quite likeable, and they only get better as they come to terms with their personal, professional, and creative problems. I almost came away thinking of stopping in a record store to get a copy of their record (but I could download it, right? Nah.).

Situational Ethics
What is it about being the CEO of a large company that leads people into situations like Craig Conway’s? fired from PeopleSoft (but still on the board of directors) because of “misleading statements” that could have gotten his company into more trouble than it already faced from Oracle, the takeover conflagration he wanted to douse has just gotten worse. It’s all a game of manipulating the stock price, which is exactly what gets most CEO’s into trouble, and it’s been going on for a very long time now, revealing the power of the investment banks and brokerage houses over how businesses are run. But look, if you’re not paying your executives with options, you don’t need a constantly rising stock price. Slow, steady growth is what the stock market is all about: long-term investment; and that’s good for the company itself in the first place. Business isn’t about how much your paper’s worth, but how much your product is worth. PeopleSoft’s product line is arguably the best of its kind. Oracle and SAP are notoriously harder to implement and maintain. Now PeopleSoft appears to need a third party to step in and buy them out in order to avoid a hostile merger with Oracle. This puts a lot of people in jeopardy: customers and employees alike. And all because Conway “misspoke.”

Round 1
Because I don't get home before 6 and I don't have cable (and because I couldn't make it to the special Democrats Abroad Meetup this weekend), I never saw any of the Presidential debate last week. Instead, I've had to rely on a transcript from the NY Times. As I read through 25 A4 pages (that's 8 1/2 x 11 to you Americans), I was at first dismayed. Although Kerry was conveying his points well, so was Bush. Even without body language and tone of voice, however, it became increasingly clear that as the debate wore on Bush was losing steam. His phrasing became more argumentative, more repetitious, and he increasingly began stammering and trying to interpolate himself the instant Kerry finished speaking, even before Jim Lehrer could signal him to begin his rejoinders. Bush's desperation was plain, so I'm glad to say Kerry won that debate well. News reports here, however, are much less sanguine about his outing, suggesting Kerry didn't do well, and that Bush looks to move pretty easily still back into the White House. I'm surprised by this, but they're also touting Howard's chances to re-occupy the Lodge (and Kirribilli House; the PM gets two homes) over Latham's odds of pulling an upset. This is a strange political bias, I think, given that the papers I mainly read here I've generally thought to be pretty small-L liberal. Perhaps the mood of the populace, that of being overwhelmed by uncertainty in the world and so preferring the easy choice of the incumbent, also infects the media.