Democratic Iraq
There's a government in Iraq now. Although having a set of democratically elected representatives hasn't actually resolved the situation, and appears to present some complications the Bush Administration might have preferred to avoid, the new Iraq may yet prove itself when it sits down to write their constitution. Allawi's party seems pretty clearly out of the running for significant influence on the proceedings. With only about 15% of the seats, even allying with the majority Shiites (51%) just barely edges into 2/3's range for forging the constitution, whereas if the Shiites can form a coalition with the Kurds (27%), they'll have a lock on how the country shapes up. So how the groups align and how they act in the formation of the constitution and how they behave thereafter - whether they maintain amicable relationships or start bickering along ethnic or sectarian lines - will determine the success of Bush's second venture into nation-building.